نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال هجدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 69، تابستان 1385)

Previous studies document that the stock market reacts to dividend changes (in industrialcounteries). The signaling hypothesis suggests that the market reacts because dividend changes contain new information about future earnings.Some recent studies in these counteries find that dividend changes reflect mostly current and past earning but not future eanings. This Article provides a model in which not all dividend changes contain new information about future earnings. Some dividended decisions are (Non -forward - Looking) in that they simply reflect current and past earnings. Other dividended decisions are Forward - Looking in that they reveal manager's new information about future earnings. The model helps identify the two types of dividend changes and predits that the market will respond further to Forward - looking diviend changes. By classifying dividend changes into the two groups, it is found that the market reacts further to Forward - looking dividend changes than to Non-forward-looking dividend changes, which is consistent with implications of the above model. Therefore, the article not only provides evidence for the signaling hypothesis in Tehran securities exchange but also helps explain the weak and mixed results of previous studies (in industrial counteries) that do not distinguish between the two types of dividend changes.

The purpose of this study was to design a practical model to apply knowledge management in higher education system including universities and higher education institutions . The review of relevant literature have revealed the supercomplexity and extensiveness ofthe range of theoretical frameworks and empirical research on knowledge management in universities and higher education institutions around the world. On the other hand, a review of literature in Iran shows the limitation of relevant resources and lack of theoretical framework and empirical research in the educational system. Researcher attempted to design an appropriate model through a survey of theories and models such as: the participatory processes of the learning organization, vision process, knowledge process, the process of the independent and dependent technology, the process of knowledge resolution, the spiral process of knowledge, and the concept of knowledge management, so, researcher’s ideas and experiences developed the initial model on the basis of the constituent variables of the existing models. A questionnaire served as the instrument of the study. Test-retest and Cronbach alpha showed the instrument reliability indices of 94.75 and 93.73, respectively. To determine the content validity of the instrument, a pilot study was conducted among 30 participants including University Chancellors,assistant of universities deans of faculties and heads of departments; and faculty members of universities across the country. After determining the validity and reliability of the instrument and making necessary modifications, the proposed model (final questionnaire) was administered to a group of 385 (n=360) participants who were selected through random sampling procedure, and comprised four groups of University including University Chancellors (n1=20), assistants of universities (n2=80) ,deans of faculties and heads of departments (n3=80) , and faculty members of universities(n4=205). The data were collected and analyzed by the SPSS software using descriptive (frequency tables and charts) and inferential statistics including Pearson correlation coefficients to determine getherness of the variables, ANOVA among the four groups, Factor Analysis (Extraction) and Principle Component Analysis. The finding indicated four groups strongly confirmed the model.the model was accepted on the basis of the obtained index of 6.15 out of 7 (criterion). The major contribution of this study is an appropriate knowledge management model proposed to be applied to in higher education system including universities and higher education institutions. the major finding of this study was a model made up of seven main components: philosophy, goals, theoretical basis, foundations , conceptual framework of knowledge, conceptual framework of vision, conceptual framework of skills, implementation procedures, evaluation, and re-engineering systems of an appropriate model. It is suggested that the knowledge management model be applied to universities and higher education systems by implementing the proposed model ,higher education system will be able to meet the challenges of needs of society, challenges of knowledge society, challenge of national, regional, and international competition for meeting the requirements of the fourth phase of human life. Therefore, regarding their contextual and specific requirements and the increasing growth of knowledge, in higher education system including universities and higher education institutions should employ such a model to be able to challenge the endless problems. Also, while highlighting the common ground between similarity and desimilarity points ,they should change the points of difference into commonalities with the application of management techniques. Using such techniques, they can establish and institutionalize the system of knowledge management at the administration systems of higher education curriculum development.

Today necessary and important of new product, conversion as a necessary strategy for stay in business. Chief companies try to use new approaches for improvement of new product development (NPD) process. One of these new approaches is concurrent engineering (CE). Many researches and studies about this approach was carried out or is doing now. In the general perspective, concurrent engineering presenting the pattern that have three aspects of design, production and customer. In other words, concurrent engineering approaches try to consider the design, manufacturing and customer of product for achievement the significant improvements in business. In this article try to consideration all three aspects of concurrent engineering and finally presenting the conceptual model of new product development (NPD) in this environment.

Nowadays, universities and institutions of higher education around the world, specially in developing countries, facing with many economical, social and technological challenges. Leaders and Policy makers and strategic managers of higher education is finding out that traditional approaches would not work in solving this complex and multidimensional problems. Leading universities toward entrepreneurial Higher Education has become a necessity during last three decades. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for entrepreneurial university in Iran. Thus a model was developed by reviewing the relevant literature and comparative study. A researcher made questionnaire was used for data gathering. One hundred and five questionnaires were sent to experts of which 80 questionnaire were filed out and returned by respondents. Data was analyzed by statistical methods such as, One samples T Test , paired samples T Test , ANOVA and Factor Analysis , using spss software. The overall findings of the study revealed a high level of consensus (%83/2) toward the necessity of creating and developing entrepreneurial university. Respondents agreed that the model of entrepreneurial university contains 9 components: cultural, economical, social and scientific infrastructures, Theoretical foundation, philosophy and goals, context, Inputs, processes, outputs, evaluation and improvement and outcomes. At the end of report, some applied recommendations were presented to enable educational leaders and other policy makers of Higher Education to lead the universities toward Entrepreneurship.

Expansion of government commitments in economic and social realms and efforts aimed at achiering objectives such as economic growth, price stability, rise in employment and equitable income distribution have faced the expenditures of governments with an asceding trend. Funding such expenditures requires sources of revenue. Among government revenues, the tax revenue plays a major role. The value added tax system, as one of the methods for tax calcution and taxcollection, can transparently calcutate the tax base and facilitable tax collection, and also in many cases it can lead to increased tax revenues. In the present research , using the inpout –output table, the tax base has been estimated for the period 1995-1999 by the use of this method. The reslts obtained from estimation of the base of the value added tax with regard to the tax code , indicate that during the second develoment plan, on average about 54 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) has been annually envisaged as the tas base.

consequences have the major importance but the study of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is important as well since one of the major consequences of inflation may be the uncertainty about the future inflation. In fact, inflation uncertainty is a part of unpredictable future inflation rate that can add the consequences of the negative effects of inflation on economic variables because, by their decisions and actions, the economic agents may reduce or destroy the costs of the predicted part of the inflation. But the inflation uncertainty is the unpredictable part of the inflation. Inflation uncertainty has had great effects on labor supply, savings, investment, economic growth and etc. and following these, other economic variables are influenced as well. There are two major views on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: the first one being Friedman-Ball hypothesis, and the second Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. In this article, two different theoretical view points are studied and finally by the help of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model and its generalized form, i.e., (GARCH), a unidirectional relationship from inflation to inflation uncertainty or vise versa and the probability of a bilateral relationship between these two variables in economics of Iran and during the years between 1315- 1382 have been analyzed. The relationship between these two variables have been studied in the short-, middle-, and long-run and the results obtained support the existence of a unidirectional relationship from inflation to inflation uncertainty. For the short-run, this relationship is more intensive than long-run. In the study of the effects of inflation shocks on inflation uncertainty, it can be said that inflation shocks had had a symmetric effect on inflation uncertainty in the short-run but asymmetric one in the long run and then the positive shocks will have greater effect on the inflation uncertainty than the negative shocks in the long-run.